Wednesday, 17 April 2019

How Promoters cheat Shareholders - Moneylife article & various collated data


How Promoters cheat Shareholders - Moneylife article

Source: http://www.moneylife.in/article/71/827.html



Indian promoters manipulate accounts and market prices for two (opposite) reasons. The first is a traditional game, which the majority
of them play – siphoning money from the coffers of a listed company for personal gains. However, in a bull market, a reverse trend starts. Many of them are not interested in suppressing profits. They want to overstate revenues and profits because this boosts their market-cap in a rising market; it helps them to raise ‘free’ money. In the past three years, I have repeatedly expressed doubts about the genuineness of the financial figures of many companies, although foreign institutional investors (FIIs) and many renowned domestic institutional investors (DIIs) were shareholders of precisely such shady companies, even as many brokerage houses, print and electronic media were flashing ‘buy’ recommendations on them.

I mainly track mid-cap and small-cap companies. Large companies are smart enough to camouflage their figures. It is much easier to find flaws in the accounting of small- and mid-cap companies. What is the arsenal of tricks employed by promoters to siphon off money or fudge their accounts? How do they pump up their share prices and dump them on the public?
Here are dozens of examples of how promoters do it. These are actual examples, but we have opted to change their names because the idea is to educate investors about management tricks.

Suppress Income
Consider textile companies. All of us believe that they don’t make money. This is not true. It is only that the promoters are adept at hiding margins. Some listed companies have at least 15-20 private limited companies, two or three proprietary firms, five or six partnership firms in the promoter’s wife’s name, in his in-law’s name, in the married daughter’s name or even in the names of trusted employees who have been working with the promoter for 20-30 years. It sells finished products to private firms that are directly or indirectly owned by the promoters at cost price or even a small loss. Those private firms, in turn, sell the products to the dealer, wholesaler or distributor and make huge profits.

I am a textiles man and know exactly how this works. I can definitely say that listed companies like Ramdiya Mills and Karma Fabrics or Synth Fabrics – have adopted this practice since inception and continue to do so even now. If you look at their cost structure, it will become very clear. Ramdiya Mills and Karma Fabrics have large reputed brands. Since they buy hundreds of crores worth of yarn every year, they get it at the lowest possible price. They get an additional price benefit by making cash payments to suppliers. Since the product they sell is a premium product, these companies ought to have a net profit margin of at least 12%-15% whereas they hardly show a margin of 2%-3%. Text100 Mills is one of the oldest and reputed cotton textile mills with significant exports. But if you look at the segment-wise results, the cotton division always shows losses. Where is the money going? Most promoters either invest it in real estate or benami accounts in India or transfer the money abroad. Of course, each promoter has a different way of looting the company and siphoning off money. The promoter of Ramdiya Mills is a hands-on guy who looks after practically everything. They do not have senior professionals in purchase, marketing or branding. Since the promoter takes all decisions, overheads are also not large. In this category fall companies, like Gofar and other powerloom companies, whose expenses are those of a powerloom, but selling price is akin to the organised sector.
In some cases, shareholders’ money goes to support the promoter’s lifestyle. Look at a famous textile company like Monde Fabrics. It has a higher cost structure – the bigger the brand name, the higher is the number of employees. Monde’s production cost is slightly higher but not high enough to show losses. Also, they should be able to show very decent profits because they have the latest technology, wastage is low and the quality is very good. Their polywool fabric is the most expensive in India but their profit is negligible. Where is the money going? The promoter’s daily expense is in lakhs of rupees which is all debited to Monde’s corporate account. So, although the selling price of Daygod Mills is 20% lower than Monde’s, its margin is higher.
Under-reporting of revenues is also rampant in the steel industry, especially in Kolkata-based companies. Each listed company has at least six or seven unlisted companies through which they do a lot of adjustments, depending on the opportunity. They decide where to show profits and when to disguise them. In this category are companies like Prism Steel and Modern Metals. Look at Modern Metals and compare it with River Electricity, a company with a similar profile. River Electricity did not have captive mines and neither did Modern. But profit margins of Modern have been very low. Their profits are vanishing through their unlisted group companies.
I had met the promoter of Auto Parts some time ago. He had some unlisted group companies with negligible profit margins and plans to merge them. He said: “I will merge all these companies and my profit will be so much higher.” I asked: How? He said: “I am suppressing the profit in these unlisted companies to reduce my tax liability.” I asked: “What is the guarantee that you will pay income tax and will not siphon off funds after merging these companies? If you don’t want to pay the government, what is the guarantee that you will pay shareholders?” Analysts usually don’t know all this; they recommended the stock even at Rs300-Rs350. It is down to just Rs30 now. Business performance has been poor.

Sell in Cash
Dealing in cash is very common in the steel industry. Cash sales take place and are not reflected in the books. That is why you will find that raw material costs rise disproportionately. I knew a person who used to be with a sponge-iron company near Mumbai. He told me that every year they sell Rs500 crore worth of sponge-iron from their plant, in cash. But all purchases and expenses are being fully accounted in the books along with the promoter’s personal expenses.

Take the example of Kanaka Leaf. Why did that company become sick? I know a manager of one of its factories. He tells me that he used to take out 90% of the stock in cash and pay excise duty only on 10% of the goods. That is one reason why this firm got into legal trouble and that factory had to be closed. He was no longer on the payroll; but the owner was still paying him Rs25,000 per month. You always know which companies are selling in cash by sniffing around at the commodity markets. Look at the textile company ABC. If you go to the textile market any time, you can buy ABC products in cash. There used to be a company called Garvi Fils which closed down. It used to sell most of its production in cash. In any textile market, you can get a list of companies which will sell yarn in cash. All of them book expenses fully; sell in cash and claim that costs have gone up. This is how they fool investors.
One major way in which promoters enrich themselves is by selling waste (or passing off even quality material as waste) in cash and pocket the money. This is rampant in the metals and cable industry. Jewel Steel is the king of this. It sells waste as well as fresh material as waste. It even sells zinc which is used for galvanising. You can go to any metal merchant in Delhi and enquire how much zinc Jewel Steel is selling and how much copper Melton Cable is selling in the open market. This is a common feature of the metal traders in Delhi where almost 80% of the business is done in cash. Companies sell to wholesalers; wholesalers sell to small converters and so on. There is an active cash market and promoters are able to sell as much of quality finished goods, raw materials, by-products or waste.

Fake Bills 
The most common practice among corporates is to buy fake bills for a small price, make the payment against these bills by cheque and instead of receiving goods, ask for the money back in cash. This is a common practice among the marwari business houses of Kolkata. They buy bills of Rs10 crore or Rs20 crore ostensibly for raw material purchase and pay for it by cheque. The material never comes to the warehouse; instead they get the money back in cash, minus a tiny commission for the fake bill. Naturally, the companies show losses or meagre profits. They are not inefficient companies, neither are the promoters fools. They simply siphon off cash by buying the bills and under-report sales. This leads to losses.


Siphon Windfall Gains 
Monde Textiles sold off its unrelated businesses a few years ago but did not pay anything to shareholders. Take Harry & Mala. Around three years ago, it had sold some real estate and had realised around Rs70 crore. No one knows where that money has gone. Another pharma company, Rockhard Life sold its IV-fluids business for about Rs160 crore to a US company. At that time, it was believed that it would use this money to retire debt but what did they actually do with the Rs160 crore?

Well, Rockhard had paid about Rs90 crore to buy a pharma company called Rind Ltd which had a plant near Mumbai. The factory land was sold to a partnership firm belonging to the promoters for just Rs10 crore. So they had a loss of Rs80 crore in the books. This loss was adjusted against the profit from the sale of IV-fluids business. The land on which Rind was located is probably worth Rs500 crore. The same thing happened in Gush Bio which sold all its assets to Darling Biotech. The CFO of Darling had told me that the cash consideration was around Rs60 crore. If Gush cannot survive and the product is not profitable, why doesn’t the promoter sell the whole company? Why is he selling the assets? Did he invite competitive bids? Was the process transparent? So Gush becomes a shell company and shareholders are cheated.
The Indian Spinning Mills closed down due to losses. It had huge land in central Mumbai. The company floated a separate entity and transferred all the surplus land to it for just Rs200 crore. The promoter is now reaping thousands of crores of rupees by developing that land. Why didn’t Indian Spinning Mills develop the land? Primex Textiles is a south-based company with a large land bank. It is developing the land but construction is being done by a partnership firm controlled by the promoters. The deal is such that Primex Textiles will get peanuts.
Real estate companies, big and small, are notorious. When they buy land from villagers or from small landowners, they pay as much as 75% in cash. Where do they generate the cash from? Often, the land is bought in the name of promoter’s firms and then transferred to the listed company at inflated prices.

Fake Exports, Foreign Acquisitions 
In a bull market, higher revenues and profits benefit the promoters directly, and instantly, in the form of higher market capitalisation. How do they boost revenues and profits? Often, by transferring illegal money that is stashed abroad by promoters, builders, bureaucrats and politicians to Indian companies through banking channels; it is shown as export proceeds. Many companies suddenly become zero-to-hero, showing a meteoric rise in the topline in just a few quarters. Unknown promoters from unknown companies suddenly do far better than their established competitors.

Over the past three years, major accounting frauds have occurred on the export income front because export income is tax-exempt – companies have to just pay Minimum Alternate Tax (MAT). Such income is not easily traceable and comes in handy to boost market-cap. So, promoters, who could not carve out a respectable niche in India, have become leaders in the international arena, even as global companies want to come to India! Such companies continue to show consistent performance quarter after quarter – until the music stops.
Badami is a big group now, but when I was in textile exports, I often received offers that went something like this: if you have an export turnover of Rs10 crore, you give it to Badami and you will get X% for it. Badami will export the product and claim export benefits, consequently increasing the size of their balance sheet. There is a company called Ecstasy Pharma. They suddenly started showing huge turnover and profit. For nine months ended December 2008, they reported a turnover of Rs110 crore and a net profit of Rs30 crore; yet they have paid income-tax of only Rs38 lakh for those nine months! I do not know how this is possible; even MAT should be higher than that. Maybe they will make a higher provision at the end of the year. But I have a strong suspicion that the exports are cooked up. Drug exports are not a profitable business. The margins are much lower than those in the domestic market; global giants like Dr Reddy’s, Ranbaxy and Cipla – major exporters from India – do not have such profit margins and this company has a pre-tax margin of 33%! Companies that are in formulations have to spend a lot on R&D and employee cost is high. The employee cost of Ecstasy is just 1.7% of the turnover.
Now look at TV Lab. In 2007-08, on a turnover of Rs1,032 crore, it had a net profit of around Rs347 crore. This company is only in bulk drugs, not formulations. It claims to be in contract research and manufacturing, but which other company has margins like TV’s? I know dozens of genuine promoters in the pharma industry very closely who say they can’t see how one can make so much money. The share price of Churchgate Technologies has crashed to Rs40 from a high of Rs2,000. They used to claim they were in the higher-end BPO business. But profits are plummeting and so is the share price. These promoters are essentially laundering money in the garb of export income. Money comes into the company’s books and they show significant profits for three or four quarters. After this, there is an announcement that it is acquiring an overseas company in an all-cash deal. The money that was laundered goes out through official legal channels. It can again be recycled into India as export income.
There is a software company called Dorion. It invested around Rs68 crore in a subsidiary in the US. The company’s total turnover is around Rs200 crore and it made a profit of only Rs53 crore in two years. It took a secured loan of Rs40 crore and promptly gave a loan, which is unsecured, to another company ‘to be recovered in cash or kind’. In effect, it has taken a secured loan to lend the money as an unsecured loan! In such cases, what usually happens is that after five years or so the company will admit that the loan cannot be recovered and write it off against some claimed goodwill or brands or tiny assets whose value is exaggerated. That is how money is siphoned off. Such money laundering cannot be carried on beyond a few years because the main purpose is to dump shares in a bull market. When the share price rises, they sell their benami holdings and extract value out of their listed entity.

False News 
Another way of fooling the investing public is by making bogus announcements – such as bagging new orders or signing a memorandum of understanding (MoU). This is easy. Any corporate can get any number of orders or MoUs signed with overseas customers. They have to pay nothing. They just have to tell those customers abroad that they need such orders in hand to get bank limits sanctioned. The foreign party sends a fax or signs the MoU because it has nothing to lose; it is in another country and not accountable to anybody here. There used to be a company called Shree Dhatu. Three years ago, the promoter used to claim he has orders worth Rs800 crore but I don’t ever remember his having reported a quarterly turnover of more than Rs20 crore-Rs30 crore. Karnet Builders has a small piece of land near Mumbai. But they have been making regular announcements about their large land bank, orders received, partnerships, etc, and nothing has happened until now. It is all false.


Pump-and-dump with Operators 
Market operators are an essential component of a bull market. Promoters need them to cheat investors through price rigging and profit rigging. The usual route is to show exaggerated profits, loan shares to operators and unload the promoter’s holding. Promoters usually collude with market operators who flaunt the right connections – foreign and Indian institutional investors as clients. It is an open secret in Mumbai that many fund managers receive huge kickbacks for investing in certain companies with an assurance from the promoter/operators that they can exit at a high price through market manipulation.

When Laltane Solutions made its IPO, some Delhi-based operators regularly contacted me to say that the stock would list at Rs500 against an issue price of Rs250. They offered me shares at Rs400 and openly admitted that they belonged to the promoter. That is how they made money in the stock market. When you think of operators, don’t think of shadowy individuals. They could well be institutions with a big name and shining public image.
Empire Clay is a company with an equity of Rs4.47 crore, belonging to an illustrious business family. Its share price started rising from Rs300-Rs400 all the way to Rs3,700, hitting the upper circuit for days together at a stretch. Volumes shot up as well. During that phase, promoters offloaded their holding. When it was around Rs2,500, a broker friend advised me to purchase this scrip. He told me that a relative of his works in a well-known institution called SLIP and he says its price will be Rs10,000. SLIP had made a presentation which was widely circulated among FIIs and high-networth investors to promote the company. Later, my friend told me that SLIP had a mandate from the promoter to implant in its presentation the idea that the share price would hit Rs10,000. It would allow the promoters to sell a part of their holding. Another operator/institution came out with a buy report on Square Tubes when its price was Rs85 with a price target of Rs150 – now the price is Rs11. I think, the institutions have an understanding with the promoters. They officially or unofficially charge a price for circulating such reports.
Remember the hype about the power sector before a major company made its IPO? A grey market had sprung up for the issue quoting a price of Rs800, when the IPO was at Rs450. Operators in Ahmedabad actually ‘bought’ some shares from the public at Rs800 but immediately sold them at Rs790. They created an impression that this grey market was genuine and I could sell my shares at Rs800. The operators lost some money, which was compensated, and the company raised thousands of crores.
In several IPOs, promoters give operators a kickback of as much as 40% to get the issue subscribed. Once it is subscribed, operators who own most of the floating stock are able to ramp up the share price immediately on listing and start exiting. Their risk is minimal because they have already taken a 40% kickback.
Visher Agro buys wheat from the market, converts it into flour and sells it to a food company selling branded atta. It is also into rice milling. It is not selling anything under its own brand name. It is just a converter. The promoter entered into an agreement with an operator and his share price rose to Rs200+ from just Rs15; it has now dropped to Rs49. He claims to have set up an unlisted company which will set up a 20MW co-generation power plant for which he is in talks with Blackstone. He was making up this story but he could not succeed in raising the money as the operator quit the counter. The share price is now languishing at Rs49.

Broken Pacts 
Another trick by Indian promoters is to announce a joint venture (JV) for a new project. After a while, there are reports about differences between the JV partners. The money invested in the JV is never recovered. It is written off over five or seven years. All this is well-planned. The JV is floated precisely to siphon off money by taking away money invested in the JV. For instance, Albert Hotels of Bengaluru paid Rs15 crore as its share in a JV with a Pune-based company to set up a five-star hotel in Pune. It later pulled out of the venture due to differences over management control and said it would file a lawsuit to recover its investment. But industry sources told me that the promoter has already taken back the money in cash and written off the investment in its books. This is a popular trick among marwari companies. They lend money to unlisted companies owned by the promoters either directly or indirectly and the money is never recovered.

How can we prevent such abuse? Unfortunately, Indian laws are not stringent enough and existing laws are not being implemented earnestly or swiftly. The auditors do what the promoter tells them to – no matter how big the audit firm. The Satyam saga has, indeed, made many promoters more circumspect and some may even scale down the level of their money laundering.
As all these examples show, Indian promoters are not stupid or less intelligent or don’t know how to run their businesses. They are actually a step ahead of other professionally managed companies. They are much more intelligent, savvy and street smart. They know how to negotiate with suppliers for the lowest possible price, how to cut costs and how to siphon off money. Most of them have trusted people or relatives in key strategic posts to prevent pilferage. Even while selling, they know how to negotiate hard to get the highest price. They work hard and make a lot of money but they don’t want to share it with you.

FEW MORE LEARNINGS COLLATED FROM DIFFERENT SOURCES-
a few simple tricks I use while checking the firm
-is the firm held by the promoter directly or through a holding firm. If it is through a holding firm and that is privately held, it is difficult for us to know about it and it is a minus.
-what are related party transactions - if there are sales subtract the related sales,if costs add the costs then take the adjusted intrinsic value
-has the company given any deposits or taken loans from subsidiaries or holding companies
-does the company pay a very large royalty to parent firm just like that
-is the promoter salary ex of dividend {because this is shared with shareholders} rising faster than profits
-who are the independent directors are they on reputed firms.
-is the promoter a page 3 type, big minus though this is my personal view Big%20smile
-is the promoter unnecessarily pledging shares and is interested in real estate
-have they been fined for frauds etc in watchoutinvestor database.
-is the company involved in government projects etc especially in states like Bihar, North East etc
-type company and promoter name with words like problem, fraud, default etc type negative adjectives in google
-check equitydesk old threads
-does the management suffer from title inflation. For example does everybody have a title starting with Chief or President. For e.g in Pantaloon they had a Chief Belief Officer who used to tell ACK stories Smile
-is the company giving dividend even when debt is high (e.g HCCBig%20smile}
-does the promoter focus more on capital structure timepass rather than improving operations e.g Munna Mobile Wink



some more promoter / manager check items that might be useful
-what is the salary of the top guys as a % of total manpower expense
-what is the % of total salary in equity at reasonable option prices, higher is better i.e more equity, less cash
-calculate the salary with stock options as an expense, this will change automatically from IFRS next year but even then for the moment it should be added
-unnecessary loans being given by company to promoters/mgmt
-how many of the guys are organically growing with the company, how many of them are fly in fly out types etc
-is the company registered in tax havens like- e.g Jet Airways for some strange reason is listed in Isle of Man. Mauritius can be excluded because we have some specific tax advantages that allows companies from there.
-is the auditor changing every year (from Alok Bholaji's excellent observation on Micro Technologies.
this is of course a list that I use, might not work for everyone so pick choose what you guys think works.


The five metrics that we used to run our check:
Booking Revenues In Advance: Are a company’s Cash Flows from Operations (CFO) growing as fast as its Earnings before Interest, Tax, Depreciation and Amortisation (EBITDA)? The formula: Calculate the percentage rise in CFO and EBITDA from one financial year (FY) to next. Compare the two to see by how much percentage is EBIDTA outgrowing CFO. The higher this result the more the chance of the company booking revenues without corresponding cash flows.
Shoring Up Operating Revenues: This metric asks, “Is a company’s ‘other income’ growing more or less in line with its investment assets?” The formula to apply is: Calculate the proportion of Other Income (OI) to Cash Investments (CI) for a FY. Do the same for previous FY. Compare the two to see whether the former has fallen drastically compared to the latter. The higher the fall the more the chance of a possible diversion of ‘non-core’ revenues to topline revenues.
Disbursement Of Loans To Related Parties: This metric directly looks at the quantum of a company’s loans disbursed to related parties. As a general thumb rule, if more than 1 per cent of loans or advances given out are to such related parties then there is a case to ask the question “Is cash being pulled out of the firm by the promoter?” The formula: look at Loans and Advances figure in the balance sheet. Get the loans to related parties figure from the notes to accounts in the annual report. Find the proportion of the latter to the former.
Shifting Expenses Away From The Current Period: This metric asks “Has a company’s ratio of depreciation to Gross Block of Assets changed significantly in a given FY from the previous one? If so, is the company using depreciation to ‘manage’ earnings?” Calculate the depreciation rate of a FY by dividing the Gross Block of Asset with the Depreciation Charged. Do the same for previous FY. Subtract the former with the latter. If the difference is negative and significant it raises a red flag to dig deeper.
Mis-match Between Quarterly Un-audited Figures and Annual Audited Figures: Do the audited annual FY Sales and Profit After Tax (PAT) reported to the stock exchanges tally with the quarterly sales and PAT reported earlier at the end of each quarter? Except for minor variations or variations due to demergers or other major corporate restructuring they should. Add Q1, Q2, Q3 and Q4 Sales and PAT figures for a given FY. Get the final audited figures for Sales and PAT. Compare the two.

Sunday, 10 September 2017

FUTURE ENTERPRISES - SURESHOT WEALTH CREATOR IN THE LONG TERM


                               Future Enterprises Limited (FEL), of the FUTURE GROUP the backend company of the man who pioneered the organised indian retail industry, Kishore Biyani, formed after restructuring of whole group into meaningful subdivisional entities , demerger of Future Retail in 2016 which now has three major operations: leasing, manufacturing and investments, the major income of which comes from leasing out the furniture, fittings etc assets to future group companies  ( lease rental 600- 650 Cr p.a.). The company also serves as a holding company for the many of the groups allied businesses & potentially fruitful ventures. Other main demerged companies of the group include Future Lifestyle (FLF), an integrated lifestyle fashion business & Future Consumer (FCEL) foraying into food division. This demerger & segregating of businesses into separate entities has led to unlocking of value to shareholders of respective businesses without carrying the load of other unwanted businesses as was evidenced in previous avatar of future group conglomerate.

                         POTENTIAL OF ITS INVESTMENT
                         FEL is a myriad of multi faceted businesses all in good health, waiting to unleash their full potential. Here's a look at them  as per FEL Analyst Meet held on 9th May 2016  - 



It has been a year since that presentation & both now listed entites FCEL & FLF have gone up 150 - 200% of their then value as regards their current market cap, which shows the potential growth that these underlying investments have locked in them. A rough calculation by me -
                                                                                                                                      Rs in Cr.


Ofcourse the company has debt humongous debt of over 4500 Cr, costing them around 500 Cr p.a. as interest costs. Mr Biyani had started process restructuring last year & will continue to sell off stake & pare debt. among them are monetization of FSCL, FCEL, FLF (already done ), sale of further stake in FSCL, Gen. Ins, Life Ins, Staples & IPO of Future Supply Chain Limited, the logistics arm of the group which serves outside clients as well earning more than 40% revenues from outside future group, & with the vast network & infrastructure of Future Group & especially after GST its value is going to swell more than ever in the long run.




Well you might believe he wont sell any stake or do any of the above discussions made at analyst presentations, have a look at his previous discussions regarding restructuring made on 9th November 2012, which had sought to unlock shareholder value by sorting out the complex maze of businesses into an asset light business & listing FLF , now a 6000 Cr Mcap company , unlocking shareholders' wealth multiple times in 5 years.

      Even if it does not want to, IT HAS TO...as you can see it has timely debt obligations to redeem & pay off (apart from interest exp which will be met by most of internal accruals), which will trigger the stake sale & listing of subsidiary to fund the repayments.

                                             FEL DEBT OBLIGATION TIMELINE
                          Prepared from information available in FEL Annual Report 2015-16 


                                                         FEL EARNINGS & EXPENSES

FEL Earnings from the lease rental stands at Rs 550-750 crore and from manufacturing at Rs 100-300 crore. Thus rental income is fixed cash inflow, from the fast growing future group businesses (FCEL & others), while it also receives earnings from textile manufacturing units in Mumbai- Appollo & Goldmohur mills , the products of which are sold through the established franchise FLF.  
                         
                                                          POINTS WORTH NOTING
  • It has recommended dividend of 0.20 per share (10%) for FY 16-17.
  • As on 31 Mar 17 , has tangible fixed assets of 6250 Cr, equity & reserves of 3821.01 Cr .
  • Book value of 70 Rs per share, double than CMP of 34 Rs on 22 June 2017 (was trading at 19 last year). Thus it is safe from downside risks as it has ample backing of real assets & hence in the long run, it has no way but to go up.
  • Revenue from Operations of 16-17 Rs 4013 Cr is 2.50 times more than current Market capitalization of FEL 1600 Cr. Value of its subsidiaries & ventures currently is 7200 Cr , more than 6 times its market cap, which could easily grow to 11-12000 cr in the long term. 
  • Almost 100 companies which have reduced their debt more than doubled investors’ wealth in the last one year article circa 2016.... Sign of things to come.
  • FEL have appointed auditors & consultants (refer BSE news item dated 22/05/17 ) CA DMKH , whose specialities are: "Consultancy in the field of Company Law matters, IPO Planning,Merger & Demerger and Business Restructuring etc."
  • GST will give a big push to organized sector, thus FCEL & FLF are expected to perform even better. Mr Biyani has after restructuring pulled the right strings & got the whole future group on track. He now has an aggressive aim to reach out to nooks & corners of the country & multiply group's turnover by 5 times to 1 Lac Crore til 20-21. The spree of acquisitions by him over the past years proves it. Having a stake & lease rental income from these units will consequently add to FEL's income.
  • Expected increase in EPS due to savings of interest expense (in the long term on debt being pared significantly) should multiply shareholders' wealth by many times -








With a company guzzling out EPS in late single digits & assured cash inflows through rentals which are enough for further acquisitions of fixed assets, one can assume a good market capitalisation. Infact after the debt has completely written off i even expect EPS to go in double digits in the long term. With that EPS, one can easliy assign even a nominal P/E to come at a huge increase in valuation from current levels. Future Enterprise Ltd is the giant elephant in the room, & it has just started to move.

Links -
FEL ANALYSTS PRESENTATIONS

P.S.- [Note:  FLF had already been divested fully in late 2016 I had taken it to give the complete picture of investments of FEL & FCEL was divested after this blog was written.]
There are few points i havent covered due to lack of time, valuation part & some analysis could seem amateurish, but i wil slowly improve upon it in the long run. Your comments & suggestions are welcome.




Disclaimer -

This is not an advisory service to buy or sell nor an offer inducing to buy or sell. The contents of “this research report” are only for educational purposes. Its only meant to describe company's features, advantages,  No liability is accepted for any content in “this research report”. The author is neither a registered stockbroker nor a registered advisor and does not give investment advice. His comments are an expression of opinion only and should not be construed in any manner whatsoever as recommendations to buy or sell a stock, option, future, bond, commodity, index or any other financial instrument at any time.The author recommends that you consult with a qualified investment advisor, one licensed by appropriate regulatory agencies in your legal jurisdiction, before making any investment decisions.

Saturday, 22 April 2017

Rakesh Jhunjhunwala - Brief excerpt of his investing career

Rakesh Jhunjhunwala – An Inspiration, Role Model and the only best of all stock trader and investor we Indians know. The one who has transformed the way we see the trading world.
Its a story of inspiration of a young dreamer who started back in 1985 at the age of 25 years with limited capital of only Rs. 5000 but with big dreams, who spent day and night to understand the rules of the games, whose courage and dedication made him a billionaire & surely one of the most followed and respected investor / trader in India & across the globe. The one who broke all the fixed rules of trading and laid down the foundations for others to follow.
The one considered to be an idol figure, someone who has given light to the hope and dreams of all the young new comers to the trading world. Respected not anywhere less than Sachin Tendulkar who is considered to be the god of cricket in India.
We hereby HONOR another TRADING LEGEND as a God of Trading in India – Rakesh Jhunjhunwala.
How did Rakesh Jhunjhunwala started his journey in Indian Stock Market?

Beginning of a New Dreamer – Entering the Trading World
Rakesh Jhunjhunwala started his trading journey in 1985 at the age of 25 years right after completing his Chartered Accountancy (CA). He got the inclination to invest in the markets from his father who himself was an investor. When Rakesh asked his father that he wants to make a career in Stock Market his father gave him his blessings and supported him psychologically & emotionally but in turn ask him not to approach him and his friends for the capital.
So from the beginning he was clear that to trade or invest the market, he has to arrange the capital on his own. He started with his saved money of Rs. 5000 and got his funding of Rs. 2.5 lacks @ 18% interest rate and another Rs. 5 lacs from some other known at 24% from some of his and brothers known.
After arranging for some 8-10 lacs for trading, he started his trading career while standing outside the ring of Bombay Stock Exchange (BSE) .
How Rakesh Jhunjhunwala make money from his first few investments?
Early Years in Trading Arena – Rise of the Investor
His First Investment Ever – Tata Power
In 1985, Rakesh Jhunjhunwala bought 5000 shares of Tata Power with a thought of companies good earnings & as the yield was greater than the interest. The stock gave him a regular dividend income flow of Rs. 40000-50000 per year. This is how rakesh jhunjhunwala generated the regular cash flow to meet his expenses during his earlier years in trading the markets.
He was living at his home where his father used to take care of all the home expenses so he was careful and conservative with his things as all that he had was saved in his investment in Tata Power. This made him feel that in to grow or compound his capital, the only passport for him is to Start Trading the Markets.

Rise of a Trader
First Leveraged Trade in Tata Motors in 1988
In his own words, I leveraged because I had no capital. The Badla trade or the Futures trade I did only in 1988 because I had earned money, I started with Rs 5000, by 1988 I had got Rs 70-80 lakh. My family won’t give me any capital. My father even if he gave I wouldn’t take, it is the costliest form of capital. So, I thought how do I get capital? I had Rs 70-80 lakh so I thought the only way I can get capital is by Trading.
So, he did his first forward (badla) trade in life.
Rakesh Jhunjhunwala bought 5 lac shares of Tata Motors @ Rs 90 and in four months he sold at 120 and he was worth another crore i.e. a total of 2 crore of investment capital now.
Next Transformed Trade – Sesa Goa
Some of his friend recommends him to buy Sesa Goa, the company owned by Anil Agarwal. He researched the company and the iron ore price and bought 2.5 lac shares @ Rs. 27-28 per share & another 2.5 Lac shares @ Rs. 35-36 per share so a total of 5 lac shares of Sesa Goa.
Before buying the stock, Rakesh Jhunjhunwala thought that the the price will reach Rs 60-65 in a year and he will sell. But as the Ruia’s wanted to get into iron ore & Citi Bank was buying for Ruia`s so the price flared up to Rs 65 in just three months. He sold 4 lac shares at Rs 60 & retained about 1 lac shares. This made his total net worth zoomed to Rs 4 crore.
The 1 lac shares of SesaGoa that he retained was sold in between till 1992 when the stock price zoomed up till Rs. 2200 per share.
Important Note:-
He bought next lot of 2.5 shares of Sesa Goa at a price higher than his initial purchase price. So, before betting on again in the stock, he must have waited for some confirmation for favorable situations as per his expectations in the rise of the iron ore prices and in-turn rise in the price of the stock.
Also, he sold back 80% of the stock bought at the price he decided to sell before buying the stock while retained some to go with the market conditions.
So, it becomes always necessary for a trader or a investor to buy more whenever situations and stock price moves as per your expectations and not against. And also to exit and book some profits inline with your expectancy while some quantities may be left over to keep on rolling as per the conditions.


I. Rakesh Jhunjhunwala as an Investor
Multi-Baggers in his Career
How to Find Multi Baggers?
One needs to check what opportunity the business has? who are the entrepreneurs? how much capital is needed? is the business scalable? and what is the company`s valuation?
It should not be one of the popular stocks. there should not be any institutional ownership, it should be under research, nobody should know about it.
Investing In What You Know the Best!
His Major Investment Ideas that Worked Well
How he spotted multi-baggers?
Titan Industries
Rakesh Jhunjhunwala has one of his biggest holdings in Titan Industries. He invested in titan some 14 years ago which generated him 8000+% return from his investments which is now worth some Rs. 2500 crores and accounts for more than 25% of his total investments in equities.
Rakesh Jhunjhunwala said my reason for investment in Titan Indsutries was because of the India`s macro as India was going to have a huge consumer market. Titan was a retailer, it was a brand company, it always had a great business. He said I thought branding business in jewellery will eventually succeed. I envisaged the future and I thought Indians are going to buy far many watches, so that is how the business should be great.
Jhunjhunwala bought into Titan in 2002-03 at an average price of around Rs 5; the stock then rose to touch Rs 80 and later fell to Rs 30, but he did not sell a single share. That Rs 30 is nearly Rs 375-400 today.
He investments in titan had an average price of Rs 32-33 and bought some 12.5 lac shares and thought that the price would become Rs 200-215 in five years. I never thought that the shares will be in four figures but once I met the management of Titan to understand what is within the core of the company I predicted that night that the price will eventually go in 4 figures and then I started buying further and I bought upto Rs 150-160.
His other Multi-bagger Investments
Rakesh Jhunjhunwala has held his other major disclosed stakes in nine companies, including Crisil, Lupin, Aurobindo Pharma. He has a dedicated disclosed portfolio of 8000+ crores, out of which his three holdings is more than half of the portfolio value where Titan accounts for approx 2500cr, Lupin 1250cr, and crisil 790 cr.
His 2nd biggest investment in held for a long time didnot went up more till 2009. The stock was in the Rs 135-150 range, but went up from Rs 150 to Rs 1,350 in 2015.
His average returns have been highest from the stocks he held the longest as his highest returns are on stocks he has held for at least 10 years such as Lupin with approx. returns of 13000%, Crisil 5000% and Titan 8000%.
EPS & P/E
Price is equal to EPS multiplies by P/E, so circumstance should arise where the P/E should grow and the EPS should grow. Suppose I buy a stock, which earns Rs 5. At 5 P/E and I pay Rs 25, if the earnings becomes Rs 15 and the P/E becomes Rs 20, that Rs 25 goes to Rs 300. So, the basic methodology is. P/E expansion is function of so many items. It is a function of size. So, many of my companies I don`t sell because I feel that P/E will expand, as their size increases and liquidity increases. In trading, I can do anything but am I going to invest at 60 times P/E, 70 times P/E. Definitely No.

When to Sell Multibaggers?
Multibaggers should be sold only in two circumstances: when we have limited capital and when we get an opportunity that is better than what we have now.
Secondly, when the perception of earnings peaks and the P/E is unsustainable. Its time to sell.
Read the story and investment philosophy of another great legend – Peter Lynch . He was the one who invented the word “Multibaggers”. Peter Lynch is one of the most admired and followed stock investor / fund manager. Lynch always outlined the advantage that a everyday investors has to spot good investments in their day-to-day lives and because of their familiarity with the market place. He is the author of the best selling investment books
Some one who always stresses on Investing In What You Know the Best! He said
Rakesh Jhunjhunwala`s Investment Style

#1. Invest Before you Investigate – If he find something great, he buys it & then do all the research.
Rakesh Jhunjhunwala said sometimes market gives us such great opportunity where you just buy the stock at the very first moment and then you investigate later.
Some of his investments like in Dewan Housing which had a Rs 230 book value, 6 percent yield, 4 times earnings. The company was growing at 20 percent for the last ten years and was available at Rs 105. He bought 50 lac shares and said to himself we will think about it later – it is trading at such ridiculous valuations.
Another case where he invested in Lupin not because he knew all the technicallities of the pharma like ANDA, DMF, etc but I knew one thing that Ranbaxy had earned Rs 250 crore in a single product. Similarly, Lupin had the only injectable Cephalospor in approved FDA plant in Asia. They were the single filer for a product having a size of USD 360 million and the marektcap of Lupin was Rs 200 crore. What is there to think?
So those kinds of situations for him are like INVEST NOW & INVESTIGATE LATER.
In one his interviews, he said the girl should be so pretty that you think of the consequences later, you first start dating her. The stock should be such that at this valuation let us just buy. Similar to situation like meeting Aishwarya Rai, what are you thinking!! You date her without thinking.
In an interview he said that he reads Economist and India Today. In the Economist, he read the entire business section and the science and technology section. These are the constant reads. He also reads the broker reports and go through balance sheets.


#2. Four Important factors for Investing in a Company
1. The External Opportunity – Demand
For instance in Praj maybe because of the need of alternative fuels the demand for ethanol plants went through the roof. So, I look at the opportunity the business has.
India being a youth county, Companies like titan with products as FastTrack can attract a huge demand to meet.
Entry barriers as he outlined In case of Titan whereby in jewelry business there are low margins, so there are entry barriers.
2. Entrepreneurs
3. Capital needed
4. Valuations – It is important what you buy, it is important at what price you buy. So, I look at the valuations. Many companies do underperform or outperform the markets. So stock may rise many folds when the index is falling while it may fall when the over all markets are rising. So it becomes important to know and evaluate the right price of a stock to be bought. Because market may perform but it might happen that you stock will go no where.
When Rakesh Jhunjhunwala bought United breweries at the price of Rs 15-17, people warned you are buying Mr Mallya`s company, you will not earn anything. He calculated that for Rs 100 crore marekt cap, we were getting 60% of India`s liquor industry. So, it is important what you buy and it is more important what price you buy but that doesn`t mean that if Infosys has Rs 30 crore market capitalization, then at Rs 90 crore you should not buy it. We don`t buy it just because it has doubled. You have to see value when you buy.


#3. Believe In India
He is a strong believer in India`s growth story. Most of his investments are based on the growth of the Indian economy and centered around Indian Consumers. He said I think the most exciting thing that I find about Titan is not Tanishq but Fast Track. It is India`s biggest youth brand. If you look at the potential market, if you look at the marketing skills, it is unbelievable. all my companies are 98% India-centric. If India doesn`t grow @ 9-10%, Titan cannot grow at the price at which it is growing. So, the call is India.


#4. Never Avoid Unpopular Companies
For a multibagger pick, he believes that the stock should not be one of the popular ones.
Never in my life have I not made an investment because the stock is not popular. In fact I like to make the investment when the stock is not popular.
There should not be any institutional ownership, it should be under research, nobody should know about. Because if market will know about it, they will drive the stock price up.
Most important is You Get it Cheap.
This supports his saying that – if the girl is pretty, the suitor will come. This happened when he got bullish on PSUs and people used to ignore him.


#5. Balancing Greed & Fear
A right balance between the greed and fear is utmost important not only for the growth of a trader or an investor but also for his survival in the markets. Any deviation between the two will put the trader or investor into big trouble. So, even if you are extremely bullish in a stock don`t be greedy by putting in more than certain percentage of the wealth into the stock and also fear will ensure that you don`t do such things by thinking that the stock might not do well and you may loose on your investments. But don`t let your fear or greed takes a heading play in your trading decisions.
I hold investments for a long time because I read somewhere and time has taught me that we should be greedy, but long term greedy. So, when you have something good, stick to it.


II. Rakesh Jhunjhunwala as a Trader
Someone asked him why you talk about trading when markets are all about Investing? For which he replied who will give you capital to invest? Your Father or My Father. So to build up capital to invest you have to opt for Trading. He actively trades in the market and always have a differentiated list of stocks he will be trading as against his investment bets.
In his words, I had no capital when I came to the markets, and no father gifts and no father-in-law gifts. So I had to earn the capital to invest. How do you invest if you don’t have the capital? And I got the capital by doing future trading.
Does Rakesh Jhunjhunwala actually trades the market or Leverage? Does he do short trades?
Below are some of his trades he shared.
I remember I was short 15,000 shares of ACC and at 4 o`clock in the afternoon Saturday, I called my broker and I said, Whatever be the price and whatever be the cost, I want 15,000 shares covered and then at Rs 3,000 I was long.
In 1998, Rakesh Jhunjhunwala he was worth 89-90 lacs. Started badla trading. Bought Tata Motors. Bought 5 lac shares at Rs. 90 and in four months he sold at 120. And he was worth another crore i.e. 2 crores in total.
In 2003, he bought Tata Motors @ Rs 240. He had a position of 2 million shares and when the stock was at Rs 340, he squared off everything.


The Bottom & Top Picker
In his own words,
I first earned on the budget, everyone was so bearish, I made money. We made money right at the point, we sold nearly at the top then we shorted the market during the Gulf war then we cut at the bottom. Then when Manmohan Singh became the Finance Minister, we bought lot of stocks.
Rakesh Jhunjhunwala Trading Style
#1. Never average a losing trade
#2. No Price is too High to Buy & No Price is too low to Sell
#3. Dont let your trades into Investments.
#4. Looking at the Broad Direction – Don`t try to be an expert or predict every move, every hour, every day. Take a loss, know what to stake. I think I feel confident to trade anywhere in the world or what you need to have is a broad direction of the trend and very broad ideas.
#5. Know what to stake and when to take a loss.
#6. Rule of Pyramiding – Go with the Trend of the Market – As a rule in trading, never ever average a losing position.
#7. Price is the first indicator? – We know all big moves start with small moves and therefore the price is the first indicator of what is coming.
#8. On Leveraging – I had no capital when I came to the markets, no father or father-in-law gifts. So, I had to earn the capital to invest and I got that capital by trading in the futures market.
#9. Follows what George Soros says – It`s not important that you are right or wrong in trading, its important how much you lose when you are wrong or how much you make when you are right.
#10. Going With the Trend – I always trade with price. If I would do a trade, so long my XYZ stock is at Rs 100 and it goes to Rs 120 and I buy more, no worry, by the time it will be Rs 90, we will all squared off. Its what we call as Vadhere Vadhare Levanu Vadhare Vadhare Beichavanu. Say I am bullish on XYZ stock I buy that stock, if it goes up it is an indication of the fact that I am right. We do what is called as pyramiding. I buy a stock at Rs 100, I buy more at Rs 105, I buy more at Rs 110 so what are markets, what it is trading? It is basically momentum, so you play momentum.
If the market is rising vadhere vadhare its momentum is upwards. You buy on the rise, if markets are going down, you sell on the fall. This applies to short term trends, medium term trends and long term trends.
Also, Read the story and trading rules of a Boy Trader who started trading the markets at the age of 14 and later became the Greatest Speculator of Wall Street.
How a 14 year Old Kid Transformed Himself to Become the Greatest Trader of the Wall Street?
What others have to say about Rakesh Jhunjhunwala?
When he talk trading, he talks as per rules of trading which are price, demand and supply driven and while for investing as per investment rules P/E, valuations, EPS, Sales, etc. So, he is able to differentiate well what he is doing? Trading or Investment. He never let his trades become his investments.
Why does Rakesh Jhunjhunwala require 4 Screens in his Trading Room to manage his Portfolio?
He said in an interview that all the screens are of the BSE, NSE live stock prices. Multiple screens help him to stay updated with all of his long term investments, short term investments, stock he is following, futures he trades and Reuters screen to get the market information.

Trading Lessons from Rakesh Jhunjhunwala for New Traders
#1. Be clear with whether you are trading or investing. Don`t let your trades into long term investments.
#2. Don`t sell the stock only on the basis of fundamentals and opinions but also account the market conditions.
#3. Put Money where your mouth is.
#4. Mistakes are your learning friend. The idea is to keep these mistakes small.
#5. If a girl is beautiful a suitor will come. If a stock is beautiful, a suitor will come. So I don’t search for suitors when I buy the stock.
#6. I have learnt two things about the press and wives. When they say something – don’t react.
#7. At present India is running without Shoes with lack of infrastructure, corruption and see how we are doing. So, understand what if India is with Shoes.
#8. Don`t let your love for price momentum trades make your long term portfolio.
#9. Markets are about money, but markets are also about knowledge. Markets are also about egos; markets are also about the satisfaction of having been proved right. Especially, when that right is from an original thought and not from a guided source or following somebody.
#10. Either don’t come to markets or don’t regret what you have done. Naya gilli, naya dao.
#11. I only make mistakes, which I can afford, where I can lift to begin again.